Friday, May 2, 2014
This chart says we're in for a 20% correction,......By Maxwell Meyers
We all know about the Marc Fabers, Peter Schiffs and Nouriel Roubinis of the world, endlessly calling for the mother of all crashes. But now a different source is sounding the alarm: the charts.
Despite the Dow Jones industrial average reaching a new record high, Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, says certain technical indicators are calling for a serious correction.
"I'm going to be completely clear here: I'm quite bearish and I think the market's going significantly lower," said Ross, a "Talking Numbers" contributor.
"I think that we're in exactly the same scenario," said Ross, who notes that a similar decline to the current 150-week moving average would also be roughly 20 percent to around the 1,500 level. "I think that's what we're staring at right here. I think that there's still time to get out of this market."
Charts are one thing. But is there a fundamental reason to back up Ross' bearish views?
Recent economic data have been soft, including this week's first-quarter U.S. GDP report that showed the slowest growth since the fourth quarter of 2012. The earnings front has not been much better for growth stocks either (see Twitter and Facebook).
Yet according to Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, investors were already prepared for a slow first-quarter number.
"The stock market has been reflecting defensiveness all year," said Sanchez, a CNBC contributor. "The market already had a handle on the fact that it would already be weak."
In particular, Sanchez says the recent weakness in housing is sounding the alarm for investors.
"If you look at the pillars of the economy that should be holding us up, one of the biggest that's been doing poorly is housing," Sanchez said. "If we see further (declines) in housing, that could be very negative. So, I do think that there is some reason for caution right now."
To see the full discussion on the S&P 500, with Sanchez on the fundamentals and Ross on the technicals, watch the video above.